CHICAGO – The number of unemployed Americans will continue to grow throughout 2009 and will level out in the first half of 2010, according to Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Employment levels may stay flat until well into 2011 and job creation even then will show only moderate gains. It may be 2013 before we start to see the level of employment growth associated with a healthy and expanding economy.
Public works projects will help many, but not all. A major component of president-elect Barack Obama’s proposed $850 billion to $1 trillion economic stimulus package is a massive public works project that will put Americans back to work rebuilding, repairing and improving the nation’s roads, bridges, ports, schools and other parts of our aging infrastructure.
The project will certainly help bring back some of 780,000 construction jobs lost since Oct. 2006. It will also have residual benefits for manufacturing workers who build the heavy machinery, building materials and other equipment needed to undertake this massive task. Engineers and architects will also reap the rewards.
Others will be less likely to see the benefits. The thousands of real estate workers, lawyers, insurance and banking workers who lost their jobs in the fallout of the housing collapse are unlikely to make the move from their white-collar, information-based professions to the more labor-intensive occupations.
The growth of layoff alternatives. While some companies continue to rely on large layoffs to achieve cost-cutting goals, more and more companies will look for other ways to reduce costs. The motivation behind the trend stems from potential labor shortages during the eventual expansion as millions of baby boomers leave the work force.
Some of the leading alternatives to downsizing will include forced vacations, operational furloughs, shortened workweeks, wage and hiring freezes, smaller or no bonuses, limited travel and cuts in perks (such as tuition reimbursement).
Public sector will benefit from banking collapse. The biggest benefactor of the widespread white-collar layoffs in banking, real estate, technology and insurance could be the federal government, which is facing possible labor shortages as 58 percent of supervisory and 42 percent of non-supervisory federal workers become eligible to retire by the end of fiscal year 2010.
Nearly every department within the government is in need of accountants, IT specialists, economists, analysts and managers. While Wall Street veterans would be taking a significant pay cut to work in Washington, many will still make the move as an opportunity to serve their country. Others may seek opportunities in education, which is also in desperate need of skilled teachers.
Social networking as a job search tool will explode. Call them the sandwich boards of the 21st century. More and more Americans will turn to social and professional networking sites as well as other non-traditional resume-delivery methods such as a YouTube to spread the word about their quest for employment.
These networks will become the preferred grapevine for job leads and the best source of “inside contacts” to help your job search by connecting you with decision makers. A 2007 survey conducted by the Institute for Corporate Productivity revealed that 65 percent of business professionals utilize personal and professional social networking Web sites.
About 35 percent of these individuals said they use networks to assist them in finding a job. That percentage is certain to grow as more and more workers find themselves falling victim to corporate downsizing.
Colleges and universities will be inundated with applications. Many young people will opt to continue their education until the economy and job market begin to improve.
Others who have been out of college for a few years or longer will find ways to return in order to improve their skills and marketability in an increasingly competitive job market. In an Aug. 2008 survey of 245 business school admissions officers by Kaplan Test Prep & Admissions, 75 percent said that business school admissions were more competitive than three years ago.
Two obstacles will stand in the way of even more people seeking continuing education opportunities: smaller aid budgets at the nation’s colleges and cutbacks in corporate tuition-reimbursement programs.
Fewer Americans will vacation. Due to economic pressures of the recession (not to mention the pressure of maintaining job security as layoffs mount), a growing number of Americans will forego vacation plans in 2009.
A 2008 survey by travel Web site Expedia.com found that about 33 percent of Americans usually do not use all of their annual vacation time and short themselves an average of three days. The Conference Board reported in April 2008 that the number Americans planning a vacation during the summer and fall was at a 30-year low.
Since then, the economy has worsened and job security has become more tenuous. Instead, many will take advantage of office holidays to string together a few three- and four-day getaways. As a result, extended-stay vacation destinations (such as Orlando and Hawaii) will suffer while smaller bed and breakfasts within a few hours drive will become more popular.
Others will simply use their three-day weekends to clean or work on projects around the house since many families are reining in spending on services that might normally perform these duties.
Smaller employers thrive with an influx of new talent. Layoffs at the nation’s largest employers could be a boon for small to medium-sized firms that are able to attract professionals from larger firms.
Challenger information shows through the third quarter of 2008 that 53 percent of job seekers obtaining new positions did so at smaller companies. In one example shared with Challenger researchers, a 40-attorney Virginia law firm specializing in health care was winning new business from companies no longer willing to pay the exorbitant hourly rates charged by large New York firms.
As a result, while many of the large New York firms have been experiencing job cuts, the Virginia firm recently added four new attorneys, which is an unusually high number of new hires for a firm its size.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas President James E. Challenger is in his fourth decade of job search counseling after pioneering outplacement as an employer-paid benefit. He has authored three books including “Secrets of the Job Hunt” and his most recent Job-Hunting Success For Mid-Career Professionals”. Challenger lives and works in Chicago.